Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. They writes two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has got something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
